Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 0.023083 0.026235 0.029672 0.033703 0.038301 0.043388 0.049447
2025-02-23 0.017995 0.022267 0.027346 0.033842 0.041945 0.051741 0.064516
2025-03-02 0.014968 0.019609 0.025458 0.033393 0.043910 0.057419 0.076169
2025-03-09 0.013262 0.018206 0.024742 0.034047 0.047015 0.064532 0.090137
2025-03-16 0.011639 0.016630 0.023505 0.033709 0.048557 0.069506 0.101537
2025-03-23 0.010759 0.015939 0.023341 0.034753 0.052021 0.077369 0.117754
2025-03-30 0.009462 0.014474 0.021875 0.033675 0.052171 0.080299 0.126799
2025-04-06 0.008529 0.013440 0.020917 0.033217 0.053134 0.084443 0.138021
2025-04-13 0.007555 0.012235 0.019560 0.031963 0.052662 0.086209 0.145483
2025-04-20 0.007196 0.011967 0.019644 0.033014 0.055997 0.094382 0.164380
2025-04-27 0.006831 0.011649 0.019604 0.033834 0.058989 0.102220 0.183456
2025-05-04 0.006535 0.011415 0.019673 0.034829 0.062352 0.110968 0.205002
2025-05-11 0.006045 0.010810 0.019071 0.034618 0.063604 0.116208 0.220898
2025-05-18 0.005661 0.010359 0.018699 0.034786 0.065570 0.122944 0.240391
2025-05-25 0.005226 0.009773 0.018026 0.034322 0.066284 0.127371 0.255808
2025-06-01 0.004989 0.009531 0.017961 0.034996 0.069233 0.136334 0.281234
2025-06-08 0.004643 0.009050 0.017401 0.034648 0.070116 0.141292 0.298909
2025-06-15 0.004497 0.008945 0.017552 0.035721 0.073967 0.152578 0.331166
2025-06-22 0.004118 0.008343 0.016674 0.034613 0.073177 0.154182 0.342527
2025-06-29 0.003842 0.007925 0.016129 0.034141 0.073678 0.158532 0.360420
2025-07-06 0.003509 0.007361 0.015237 0.032852 0.072281 0.158632 0.368593
2025-07-13 0.003427 0.007321 0.015432 0.033933 0.076224 0.170878 0.406460
2025-07-20 0.003328 0.007233 0.015517 0.034776 0.079704 0.182404 0.443874